The Kelly Criteria

Written by Jim Green
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No, it's not a spy movie. The Kelly criteria tells you what your optimum size of bet is.
As smart gamblers we are obviously trying to only get money on when we have an advantage. But just how much of your bankroll should you bet?

Risking it all every time is a pretty sure way to go broke, but at the same time, there's only a limited number of opportunities to exploit.
It's pretty easy to see that the higher your edge, the more you should be willing to bet.

Having rules of thumb can work pretty well. For example you could bet $100 on games you felt were way out of wack, $50 if you thought the lines were a little off, and $20 on hunches that had little evidence to back them up.

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